Canada’s 2025 federal election, held on April 28, culminated in a dramatic political showdown between Liberal newcomer Mark Carney and Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. Yet, the real wildcard influencing voters was not just these two contenders but the looming presence of U.S. President Donald Trump, whose aggressive trade war and provocative rhetoric cast a long shadow over the campaign.
Mark Carney, the former governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, took over the Liberal leadership from Justin Trudeau in March 2025 without prior elected office experience. His campaign capitalized on growing Canadian nationalism fueled by Trump’s threats to impose tariffs and even hints at annexing Canada as the 51st U.S. state. Carney positioned himself as the pragmatic defender of Canadian sovereignty and economic stability, pledging to diversify trade away from the U.S. and to protect Canadian industries and workers from American economic bullying. In stark contrast, Pierre Poilievre, the Conservative leader since 2022 and a longstanding MP, aligned more closely with Trump’s ideological stance. Poilievre’s muted response to Trump’s provocations and his focus on criticizing the Liberals’ decade in power failed to resonate amid rising anti-trump sentiment. The election saw a surprising collapse in Poilievre’s support, culminating in his losing his own seat in rural Ottawa to a Liberal challenger – a stunning blow for the Conservatives.
Polling data reflected this shift: from trailing the Liberals by 27 points in January, Carney surged ahead by a narrow margin in late April, particularly in Ontario, the province that holds a key share of parliamentary seats. The Liberals secured a fourth consecutive term, a rare feat in Canadian politics, signaling a clear mandate to confront the economic and diplomatic challenges posed by Trump’s America.
Carney’s victory also marked a historic moment as Canada’s first prime minister without prior elected office. His global financial expertise was seen as crucial in navigating the trade uncertainties and forging new international partnerships beyond the U.S. Meanwhile, Conservative hopes of reclaiming power were dashed, with Poilievre’s leadership questioned after the electoral rout.
Internationally, Carney’s win was welcomed by allies, including NATO chief Mark Rutte, who emphasized strengthening defense ties with Canada. The election underscored how deeply U.S. politics, particularly Trump’s disruptive policies, can influence Canadian domestic affairs, making the 2025 election as much a referendum on Canada-U.S. relations as on internal governance.
In sum, while it was officially Carney versus Poilievre on the ballot, Donald Trump’s shadow loomed largest, reshaping Canada’s political landscape.