Al Jazeera reports: Fuel prices have already surged there, with the price of a litre of diesel rising during the war by 24 percent to about $1.60, with the higher cost of filling car and motorcycle tanks having a profound effect on Kenyans’ everyday lives. Advertisement “Normally, I’d get 20 to 30 customers a day, but now I’m getting fewer than 10,” said Wainaina. “Passengers can’t afford it anymore.
I’ve had to significantly increase fares because of the rise in petrol prices and the wet season. Usually, I’d only charge slightly higher fares due to the heavy rain.”If the situation doesn’t improve soon, Eric says he and his family might be forced to live on land inherited from his grandfather in the rural hinterlands of Kenya. He expects other relatives to do the same, even if it means making a new life in makeshift homes and a lower standard of living.The Iran war has triggered what the International Energy Agency (IEA) describes as the most severe oil supply shock in history.Goldman Sachs estimates that the massive disruption of trade in the Strait of Hormuz, along with attacks on regional energy infrastructure, has reduced global oil production by 14.5 million barrels per day – equivalent to a 57 percent decline.
Background
Africa’s import dependenceDespite being one of the world’s largest oil-producing regions – accounting for roughly 12 percent of global reserves – Africa still imports more than 70 percent of its refined fuel, according to the Africa Finance Corporation (AFC), a multilateral financial institution created by African states. This left many nations there, particularly those like Kenya with no or few biocarbon reserves, exposed to market volatility, when the Iran war broke out.Last month, the AFC warned that the continent is on course for an 86-million-tonne fuel shortfall by 2040, underscoring the widening gap between domestic production capacity and growing energy demands.Insufficient refining capacity is another of Africa’s biggest energy challenges.
Key facts
- Advertisement “Normally, I’d get 20 to 30 customers a day, but now I’m getting fewer than 10,” said Wainaina.
- I’ve had to significantly increase fares because of the rise in petrol prices and the wet season.
- The media has this very narrow framing that Africa is going to be impacted the worst.
What this means
In its 2026 outlook report, the African Energy Chamber cautioned that the continent might struggle to fully capitalise on its vast oil reserves if it continues exporting low-value crude while importing high-value refined products.Yet, Africa’s energy woes are not isolated to the continent but part of a wider trend affecting countries across the world, Amaka Anku, head of Eurasia Group’s Africa practice, told Al Jazeera.“When you have a global shock like this, it affects everyone. The media has this very narrow framing that Africa is going to be impacted the worst. However, rising inflation is hurting us all,” she said.“It’s not an Africa story – it’s a global story.
For instance, the supply chain shock has been worse in Asia due to its dependence on the Gulf for petroleum products.” Advertisement Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil producer and exporter, has benefitted from a surge in energy prices, boosting its export revenues. US investment firm Vanguard reported last month that Nigerian oil companies had earned a $4bn windfall from the rise in oil prices. Its analysis found that Nigerian Bonny Light crude had risen by 66 percent since the start of the Iran war, from about $70.14 per barrel to an average of $116.84, while other African countries could benefit from growing demand for minerals.“Nigeria is seen as one of the winners of the war.
Originally reported by Al Jazeera. This story has been edited and re-presented by BRIC Team.
