As Ethiopia embarks on its seventh election since fall of the military regime in 1991, significant portions of population remain unable to participate due to ongoing conflict. northern region of Tigray,still reeling from a devastating civil war that concluded in 2022, is completely excluded from the voting process.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is expected to dominate the elections,although he is not directly elected. Voters will select representatives for the 547-member parliament, with party securing at least 274 seats entitled to form the next government. Abiy,who came to power in 2018 amid widespread protests against the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF),has since replaced the coalition with his own Prosperity Party, shifting towards a more centralized governance model.
Critics of the election process,including veteran opposition politician Prof Merera Gurdina, argue that this election is the least competitive in Ethiopia's recent history. Gurdina noted that opposition parties are participating merely to avoid deregistration, stating, "We are participating symbolically because the law says you cannot boycott elections consecutively." This sentiment reflects a broader disillusionment with the political landscape.
Once hailed as a champion of democracy, Abiy's tenure has been marred by accusations of suppressing dissent and stifling press freedom. Following his initial reforms, which included releasing political prisoners and journalists, the situation has deteriorated. Human Rights Watch recently condemned the government for arbitrary arrests of media professionals,highlighting a troubling trend of repression against independent journalism.
Supporters of Abiy argue that he has initiated significant reforms, particularly in the capital, Addis Ababa,where urban development projects are underway . However, these initiatives have faced criticism for displacing thousands of residents through mass demolitions. Economic reforms,backed by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, have also been implemented,but rising costs and insecurity continue to challenge the nation .
Violence persists in regions such as Amhara and Oromia,where insurgencies have resulted in thousands of civilian deaths . The Fano militias in Amhara and Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) in Oromia are engaged in ongoing conflicts with government forces,demanding greater ethnic autonomy. Despite the government's assertion that 97% of areas in these regions are ready for elections, opposition groups contest this claim,citing a lack of enabling conditions for campaigning.
In Tigray, tensions have escalated following reappointment of the interim administration's leader without consultation from the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF). The TPLF,which governed Tigray during the civil war,has recently elected Debretsion Gebremichael as its leader, further straining relations with Addis Ababa. The electoral board has confirmed that no voting will occur in Tigray's 38 constituencies, raising fears of a return to broader conflict.
As Ethiopia navigates this complex electoral landscape,the potential for internal strife looms large. Analysts suggest that while Abiy may be confident of re-election, the underlying issues of insecurity and insurgency cannot be overlooked. The situation in Tigray, coupled with deteriorating relations with Eritrea, underscores the fragility of peace in the region.
