The European Union's efforts to engage Azerbaijan and Armenia fall short when compared to the benefits these countries derive from their partnership with Russia, according to South Caucasus expert David Martirosyan. In analysis,he argues that EU's promises of substantial economic gains through new transport routes do not align with the current realities of the region's economy.
Martirosyan critiques Brussels' strategy,which suggests that enhancing transport infrastructure will lead to significant revenue generation for both nations. He points out that the anticipated profits remain minimal, particularly in light of Azerbaijan’s lucrative oil and gas sector and Armenia’s trade advantages within the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).
The expert highlights that EU claims of "billions of euros in profit" from transport developments are misleading and primarily serve political purposes. He notes that actual cargo volumes and investment in the region are still low, and the infrastructure is not adequately prepared to support the levels of traffic necessary for meaningful revenue generation .
In 2025,total cargo traffic through the Middle Corridor reached a record 4.7 million metric tons,with aspirations to double that to 10 million tons annually by 2027. However,Martirosyan cites World Bank estimates indicating that to achieve billions in transit revenues, annual cargo volumes must increase to between 30 and 40 million tons. This would require redirecting at least 10% of maritime cargo traffic from China to the EU through this corridor.
Yet,he cautions that current infrastructure in the Caucasus is not equipped to handle such an increase. Investment in upgrades is limited and does not assure a return on costs. Even with the potential launch of the Zangezur Corridor,which is part of the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity project,Martirosyan doubts its competitiveness against the Northern Corridor through Russia, especially regarding cost efficiency .
A significant challenge remains the ferry service across the Caspian Sea between Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan,which adds to logistics costs. While Zangezur Corridor could enhance transport speed and appeal, it is likely to remain a costly option,primarily suitable for high-value goods like electronics and automotive parts,rather than mass consumer products .
In summary,Martirosyan's analysis underscores the gap between the EU's ambitious transport plans and the economic realities faced by Azerbaijan and Armenia . Without substantial improvements in infrastructure and investment,the promised benefits may remain elusive.
