Hyundai Motor is poised to surpass Ford Motor in quarterly U. S. sales for the first time, according to a forecast by Cox Automotive released on Thursday. The South Korean automaker is expected to achieve a 6.5% increase in sales from July to September, totaling 511,421 units. In contrast, Ford is projected to experience a 7.1% decline, selling 504,172 vehicles.
This anticipated shift would position Hyundai as the third-largest automaker in the U. S., trailing only General Motors and Toyota Motor. The change comes amid a year of stronger-than-expected vehicle sales, prompting Cox to revise its 2026 forecast upwards by 2% to 16.1 million units. "The automotive market this year has been pretty resilient, " noted Jeremy Robb, Cox's chief economist, during a media call.
Hyundai's growth in the U. S. market, including its luxury Genesis brand and corporate sibling Kia, has been significant this year. Meanwhile, Ford has faced challenges, particularly with its F-Series pickup trucks, due to production disruptions caused by supplier fires last year. Hyundai CEO José Muñoz emphasized that surpassing Ford is not an explicit goal but rather a result of focusing on quality products and execution.
Cox analysts attribute part of Ford's and GM's sales struggles to a lack of hybrid vehicles, a segment gaining traction in the U. S. as gas prices remain high. "If you don't have vehicles to catch [consumers] where they are, then there are other manufacturers that likely would step into the gap, " said Erin Keating, a Cox executive analyst. GM's hybrid offerings are limited to the Corvette, while Ford's include the Maverick and F-150 pickup trucks.
Toyota Motor, a leader in hybrid technology, is also closing the sales gap with GM, the current U. S. sales leader. Cox predicts GM will report a 5.2% decline in third-quarter sales to 671,706 units, while Toyota is expected to see a 2.2% increase to 642,707 units. For the year, Toyota trails GM by fewer than 121,100 units. If Toyota surpasses GM, it would be the second time it has done so in annual U. S. sales, the first being in 2021 amid supply chain disruptions.
Fuel prices, averaging $4.48 per gallon nationally are influencing consumer preferences away from large trucks and SUVs, which are vital to the sales of Detroit automakers. GM, Ford, and Stellantis have focused on V-8 engines in their larger vehicles, a decision influenced by the deregulation of emissions and fuel economy standards under the Trump administration. "I think that's probably one of the callouts for the domestics is that they have made some interesting decisions around product, " Keating remarked.
Cox expects Stellantis to report a 1.3% decline in U. S. vehicle sales for the third quarter, although the company's total sales for the year are projected to rise by 2.8% as it implements a turnaround plan. The evolving market dynamics underscore the challenges and opportunities facing traditional automakers as they navigate a shifting landscape marked by consumer demand for more fuel-efficient and hybrid vehicles.
