The International Energy Agency (IEA) just dropped its latest report on critical minerals, and it's sounding alarms. The 2026 Global Critical Minerals Outlook,released today, warns of fragile supply chains crucial for the global energy transition and high-tech sectors. Even though prices bounced back in 2025 and early 2026,investment in critical minerals fell 9% last year,snapping a years-long growth streak.
Blame it on price swings and geopolitical tensions,plus a surge in export restrictions from key suppliers. The report flags a worrying trend: refining processes are more geographically concentrated. Indonesia's got a stranglehold on nickel, while China dominates other key minerals. Together, they made up over 75% of the growth in refined supply these past two years.
For manganese,nickel, and graphite,it's the same story — most supply growth is coming from these giants. And China's rare earth export controls, rolled out in April 2025, forced some automakers to slash or pause production. More controls announced in October 2025, though delayed for a year,could disrupt $6.5 trillion in annual downstream production outside China if fully enacted.
Still,some progress on diversifying supply. Public finance commitments to boost critical mineral supply skyrocketed,more than quadrupling from 2023 to 2025,hitting $65 billion. In rare earth refining, new U.S. projects and increased output in Malaysia chipped away at China's market share,cutting it from over 90% in 2023 to 85% in 2025,with hopes it'll drop to 70% by 2035.
But IEA report points to a big structural problem. Investment in mining is strong,but refining and downstream capacity are lagging. Take rare earths — planned refining capacity will only meet about two-thirds of expected mine output by 2035, and magnet production won't cover even a third of demand.
The IEA tells policymakers to focus on strategic minor minerals, which, though smaller in market size, can have huge economic impacts if disrupted. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol says even though critical minerals make up a small part of final product costs, diversifying them won't hit consumers hard. He stresses fixing tech and equipment bottlenecks and closing workforce skill gaps to shore up supply chains .
The report wraps up with calls for emergency preparedness,investment support, and tech and skills development to build tougher supply chains as economic security risks grow.
