India's July rainfall set to fall short, with less than 94% of usual levels expected, says Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, head of India Meteorological Department (IMD) . Current monsoon deficit sits at 40% — a big worry for farmers and water supplies.
June was letdown,just 99.5 mm of rain . Fifth lowest since 1901,worst since 2014. Normally, two or three low-pressure systems form in Bay of Bengal,but not this year . El Niño arrived in June,skewing rainfall patterns across India.
First week of July might offer some rain relief, but overall outlook is bleak. An IMD meteorologist warned that despite good monsoons last two years,current conditions could drain water reserves fast — higher temps,less rain, more evaporation .
Area for kharif crops down 22% from last year . Farmers waiting for real rain to start paddy planting. Central Water Commission says major reservoirs hold 25% less water than last June. But averaged over decade, levels still 5% above normal for now.
This year's monsoon shortfall stings more,as global forecasts point to 'Super El Niño', making Central Pacific unusually warm. In six out of ten El Niño years,India's southwest monsoon weakens.
Weather models from Australian Bureau of Meteorology suggest Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) might form later,possibly easing El Niño's blow. But Mohapatra warns models show 'neutral' IOD phase — not much help. El Niño too strong for IOD to counter .
Looking back, Mohapatra recalls 1997-98 El Niño,one of most intense, yet India got 2% more rain than usual due to favorable IOD. Rare event, only once in history.
As July monsoon plays out, IMD advises quick planning to tackle challenges of below-normal rains. Strategies for saving water,managing existing resources are key to lessen hits to farming and drinking water…
