India's agricultural sector is holding strong. Growth of 4.2% in 2024-25,then 3.2% in 2025-26,thanks to good monsoon rains. Southwest monsoon delivered 104% of its long-period average (LPA) in 2024,then an impressive 110% in 2025. June to September rains boosted crop yields. But forecast for next monsoon isn't as rosy. India Meteorological Department says below-normal season at 90% of LPA,driven by expected El Niño return .
El Niño could pose big risks . Expected to turn into weak-to-moderate event during current monsoon. History shows it disrupts rain,brings warmer,shorter winters. Worst impacts might hit during rabi (winter-spring) season from November to January. If El Niño peaks after November,rabi crops could take a hit,offsetting gains from kharif season.
Fertilizer stocks seem okay for kharif season,but rabi season could be different story. Conflict in West Asia,blockade of Strait of Hormuz might worsen supply issues. Still,food inflation stable . Thanks to record crop production in India,globally in 2025-26.
Challenges present chance for India to shift focus in agriculture. Imported 16.9 million tonnes of vegetable oils,7.3 million tonnes of pulses last fiscal year. Government,under Prime Minister Narendra Modi,urged to push for millets,pulses,oilseeds in 2026. Need less water,less urea than rice,wheat,sugarcane.
Farmers react to price signals. To push alternative crops,government must ensure minimum support prices (MSP). Could do this through direct procurement or compensating farmers for MSP-market rate gap . But these assurances should tie to market-driven prices for water,fertilizers. Efficiency boost.
As India faces potential double whammy of rain,fertilizer shortages,focusing on sustainable crops could mitigate risks,enhance food security . Strategic shift towards millets,pulses may buffer against climate swings,supply chain hiccups…
