Brazil's president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, has announced a 15% hike in the main cash-transfer program for poor families. He's also offering free weight-loss injections. This announcement lands just two weeks before the presidential election, raising eyebrows among critics. They argue these moves are politically timed.
On October 4, Lula will face Flávio Bolsonaro, a far-right senator and son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. Flávio has been gaining ground in recent weeks, though Lula still holds a numerical lead. The increase in monthly payments, from about £98 to £113, kicks in on October 19. That's just days before the expected runoff vote on October 25. This adjustment could sway between 15% and 20% of voters in what is shaping up to be one of Brazil's closest presidential races ever.
Lula defended the timing, saying the increase aligns with inflation and aims to protect the purchasing power of Brazil's most vulnerable families. But Flávio Bolsonaro criticized it, suggesting it's an attempt to “buy the votes of the poor.”
The cash-transfer program, Bolsa Família, started in 2003 during Lula's first term. It's credited with lifting millions out of poverty. Right now, it covers families earning up to £32 per person, benefiting around 50 million people, including roughly 27 million eligible voters. Despite its success, the program has faced criticism from right-wing politicians, including Jair Bolsonaro, who still kept it during his presidency.
Coincidentally, on the eve of the 2022 election, Jair Bolsonaro announced a 50% hike in the monthly payment. Lula’s campaign even filed a case with the electoral court, alleging misuse of political power. This has sparked a debate on whether Lula's recent actions mirror those of his predecessor. Some argue both leaders made adjustments for electoral gain, while others highlight differences in their approaches.
Journalist Miriam Leitão pointed out that both leaders acted out of electoral interest. But she noted Lula’s increase is limited to inflation adjustments over the past four years, unlike Bolsonaro’s temporary increase, which expired after the election. Victor Escobar, a researcher at the Laboratory of Parties, Elections and Comparative Politics, echoed this view. He said Bolsonaro's measures were more fiscally irresponsible.
Escobar acknowledged Lula’s intentions are also electoral but emphasized that such actions are expected from an incumbent seeking re-election. As long as the measures comply with the law, they're considered part of the political landscape. Some electoral law experts have even suggested that an inflation adjustment isn't inherently prohibited.
However, another far-right candidate, influencer Renan Santos, has filed a case with the electoral court to suspend the increase until the president-elect takes office. Despite his criticism, Flávio Bolsonaro hasn't taken similar legal action. He's reportedly worried about the possible backlash from voters benefiting from the program.
