Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has pulled off a stunning comeback in Brazil's presidential election. After losing in the first round, he turned the tables to win the runoff. His historic victory was driven by a powerful blend of street protests and a viral social media effort.
Initially, Lula found himself trailing despite his belief that his government was the best across his three terms. The leftist camp was demoralized, especially as analysts were predicting that the 9 million voters who had backed other right-wing candidates would likely shift their support to Bolsonaro.
But the tide began to shift when students from Fluminense Federal University took to the streets in Niterói, protesting against the possibility of the Bolsonaro family returning to power. These demonstrations quickly spread to other cities, like Rio de Janeiro, energizing Lula's campaign. It was a turning point that played a crucial role in his ultimate victory.
In his victory speech, Lula thanked the young Brazilians who stood up for democracy. This election marked the first time in Brazil's democratic history that a second-placed candidate overcame a first-round defeat in the runoff, noted political scientist Fábio Vasconcellos. He credited this success to grassroots activism, social media influence, and strategic government actions.
A centerpiece of Lula's digital strategy was a WhatsApp channel dubbed “Lula’s Army, ” launched by congressman André Janones. The channel quickly gained momentum, drawing in over 10 million followers by election day. Janones' efforts, including a nonstop YouTube live stream, were pivotal in bolstering Lula's online presence, surpassing that of Bolsonaro.
Lula's campaign overhauled its online communications, with the candidate embracing new technology by recording selfie videos. On election night, Lula expressed his intention to engage directly with the Brazilian public on a regular basis.
Vasconcellos observed that the initial mood of defeat among Lula's supporters gradually turned into hope over the three weeks leading to the runoff. Political scientist Camila Rocha pointed out that Lula's victory also signaled a broad rejection of Bolsonaro's policies. Her research showed that many voters, even those not particularly fond of Lula, were driven by fears of losing rights and potential power concentration under Bolsonaro.
Bolsonaro, who had secured 56.1 million votes in the first round, gained an additional 3.7 million in the runoff. In contrast, Lula's support surged from 53.9 million to 64.2 million votes. This increase was due to both higher voter turnout and the successful persuasion of voters who had initially backed other candidates.
Rocha's interviews with undecided voters revealed concerns about Bolsonaro's ties to big business and the possibility of a dictatorship under his leadership. Bolsonaro's recent controversies, including his remarks about using a conservative congress to change the constitution and ongoing federal investigations, further eroded his support.
Analysts widely believe that Lula's personal appeal was key to his victory. Political scientist Helcimara de Souza Telles suggested that if another candidate had been in Lula's place, Bolsonaro might have clinched a first-round win. Lula's campaign manager, Marco Aurélio de Carvalho, emphasized Lula's leadership, describing him as a “great statesman” and “star player.”
Looking ahead, Brazil's left faces the challenge of finding a successor to Lula, who has announced this is his final election. Rocha noted that Lula's dominance remains strong, with no clear leader emerging within his party. Vasconcellos suggested that the campaign's success offers a chance for renewal, urging Lula's party to connect more effectively with young and urban voters.
