Santa Fe New Mexican Homepage | Santa Fe New Mexic reports: Debate over the merits of the SAVE America Act has settled into opposing certainties — Republicans call it common-sense election security; Democrats insist it is voter suppression — but the likely electoral effects of the bill are still hotly debated. President Donald Trump crows that passage would “guarantee the midterms” for his party, while some more sophisticated analysis suggests the law could backfire on the GOP.The bill is currently hung up in the Senate, where its prospects are uncertain despite strong pressure from Trump to pass it. But regardless of whether the act disenfranchises more voters of one party or another nationally, Mississippi will still elect Republicans and Massachusetts will still elect Democrats.It is in the competitive states where disproportionate disenfranchisement could affect an election outcome.We analyzed the 2024 Survey of the Performance of American Elections — a postelection survey of 10,200 registered voters across all 50 states and D.C.
— to estimate the SAVE America Act’s effect on individual states. The bill would require proof of citizenship (such as a passport or birth certificate plus photo ID) to register to vote, while many standard photo IDs would suffice at the ballot box. Around 95% of registered voters hold a qualifying photo ID, but only an estimated 88% have ready access to the required documentary proof of citizenship.At the national level, the survey estimates that 89% of Democrats and 90% of Republicans hold qualifying citizenship documents, a difference that is not statistically significant.
Background
The most significant factor is economic, with a 15-percentage-point difference in documentation rates between the poorest and wealthiest voters.But because the composition of the electorate varies across states, national parity masks meaningful state-level variation — and what we find, looking state by state, is that the bill may significantly advantage Republicans in a few key ones.In 13 of the 15 most competitive states across the past two presidential elections, the partisan gap is statistically indistinguishable from zero. For battlegrounds such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia and Arizona, we could not determine whether the bill would advantage either party.The one clear exception is New Mexico.
Key facts
- — to estimate the SAVE America Act’s effect on individual states.
- There, Democrats are an estimated 13 percentage points less likely than Republicans to hold qualifying registration documents.
- North Carolina comes closest to favoring Democrats, but the data there falls short of statistical significance.
What this means
There, Democrats are an estimated 13 percentage points less likely than Republicans to hold qualifying registration documents. This statistically significant gap might only have modest impact on the midterms, because the SAVE America Act requires proof of citizenship only to register to vote — leaving those already on the rolls unaffected. But over time, as more people would need to register after moving, changing their names or reaching voting age, this document shortfall could flip New Mexico to an electorate where Republicans have a 3.3-percentage-point advantage.Nevada also shows a borderline-significant shift of 5.3 points in the same direction, which, all else being equal, would push it from battleground to comfortably Republican.
North Carolina comes closest to favoring Democrats, but the data there falls short of statistical significance. Nationally, the overall effect leans Republican: Eight of 15 swing states show rightward shifts, and the only statistically significant results favor Republicans.These statewide averages would mask even greater variation across congressional districts, where voters are sorted more sharply by income, education and geography. That makes the bill’s effects on House races less predictable and potentially larger.In practice, some voters who lack documents would obtain them; others, facing costs in time, money and travel associated with the registration process, would be dissuaded from voting.
Originally reported by Santa Fe New Mexican Homepage | Santa Fe New Mexic. This story has been edited and re-presented by BRIC Team.
