As the world zeroes in on oil tankers moving through the Strait of Hormuz, a graver crisis lingers. Art Berman, a veteran petroleum geologist, warns the conflict could have enduring impacts on oil production, with millions of barrels still offline and possibly never returning to the market.
Berman, who brings over 40 years in the energy field, pointed out around 8 million barrels of oil production in the Persian Gulf are offline. He stressed that just reopening the strategic waterway won't fix the deeper issues affecting production. "This is potentially a kind of a world-changing event, even if we resolve the political issues, " he said.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) supports Berman's concerns. By August 12, 2026, the IEA noted Gulf oil production rose by 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) to 23.9 million bpd, but it's still 8.3 million bpd below pre-war levels. Meanwhile, the U. S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported production shut-ins averaged 5.5 million bpd in July, and some Gulf producers might not regain previous output levels by early 2027.
Berman's analysis shifts away from the focus on midstream issues, like the safe transport of oil through Hormuz. He argues upstream challenges, especially the complexities of restarting production, pose bigger threats. Restarting a well isn't simple; it involves complex processes to re-establish communication between surface gear and underground reservoirs. "This is not like turning on a switch for a light bulb, " he remarked. "It's a complicated, high-risk, relatively long-term process, and we don't know the outcome."
He estimates about 80% of affected wells could eventually reach prior production levels, but it might take weeks or months. Some wells may need extra engineering work, and some production may never resume. Other analysts, like those at Wood Mackenzie, are more optimistic, predicting production could recover to 70% within three months and 90% within six months, assuming a controlled restart.
Berman cautioned against assuming a ceasefire or political resolution would immediately restore energy flows. Shipowners, insurers, and crews must regain confidence in safely navigating the waterway, and logistical challenges might persist even after a political agreement. "A simple political agreement doesn't mean the problem's over, " he said.
His concerns go beyond the immediate crisis, suggesting the Persian Gulf conflict could be a fundamental shock to the global energy landscape. He compared the disruption to the economic impacts seen during the COVID-19 pandemic, saying the scale of affected oil production makes it comparable to major economic disruptions. "This is not just a news cycle, " Berman stated. "This is potentially a kind of a world-changing event, even if we resolve the political issues."
Despite being the world's largest oil producer, Berman noted American consumers aren't shielded from disruptions. The global oil market means U. S. refineries need various crude oil grades for gasoline, diesel, and other products. "The problem for the U. S. isn't that we don't have enough oil, we almost do, " he explained. "It's that the oil we have isn't the right kind" for diverse needs of American refineries.
As of July 15, the EIA reported disruptions in Hormuz had already led international buyers to seek alternative petroleum sources, contributing to rising U. S. refinery margins and increased production and exports. The future recovery path, whether aligning with EIA's expectations or facing technical hurdles Berman anticipates, will heavily influence the economic fallout from the conflict.
For Berman, the key question isn't just when tankers will return to Hormuz, but whether the global energy system will ever return to its former state. The White House has tried to downplay concerns about long-term U. S. energy security threats, citing record production levels and blaming instability in the Strait of Hormuz on Iran. White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers noted that record oil and gas production strengthens U. S. energy independence and national security.
As the situation unfolds, the complexities of oil production and the geopolitical landscape will keep shaping the future of global energy markets.
