Russia's military ambitions in Ukraine are faltering,with President Vladimir Putin's forces struggling to capture the remaining 20 percent of the eastern Donetsk region. Despite previous deadlines, the Institute for Study of War (ISW) indicates that at current pace, it would take Russia 14 years to achieve its goal.
In the first half of 2025, Russian forces managed to seize 2,190 square kilometers (845 square miles) of territory, but this year, their gains have plummeted to just 622 square kilometers (240 square miles). This translates to mere 1.03 square kilometers (0.39 square miles) per day in 2026,a stark contrast to the 16.6 square kilometers (6.4 square miles) per day achieved in early 2025. The situation worsens further when accounting for Ukrainian counter-offensives, leaving Russia with a net gain of only 97 square kilometers (37 square miles) in the first half of this year.
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has pointed to strategic decisions made last year, including ramping up drone production and developing long-range missiles,as key factors in Ukraine's recent successes. These advancements have allowed Ukraine to disrupt Russian supply lines,a tactic referred to as "Logistical Lockdown." In June,Ukraine launched a 40-day campaign of strikes targeting Russian logistics,resulting in a significant increase in mid-range attacks from 210 in May to 303 in June.
In notable display of military effectiveness,Ukrainian forces reportedly struck Russian target every 52 seconds in June, damaging or destroying over 50,000 military targets. Zelenskyy announced that these capabilities would expand further this month as additional resources are allocated to battalions .
On the diplomatic front, Russia appears to be seeking peace talks,albeit on its own terms. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov recently indicated a willingness to engage in discussions mediated by U.S., referencing previous meeting in Alaska where proposals regarding Donetsk were discussed. However, Putin has rejected two ceasefire proposals from Kyiv,insisting that Russia's retaliatory strikes are far more devastating .
As the military situation deteriorates,economic challenges are mounting for Russia. Oil exports, which constitute a significant portion of the national budget, have dropped by 30 percent from January to May compared to the previous year. This decline is attributed to Ukraine's systematic strikes on Russian oil infrastructure,making it increasingly difficult to load tankers safely .
Fuel shortages have become evident across Russia,with reports of public disputes over access to gasoline. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak attempted to reassure citizens, claiming that sufficient fuel exists in the market, despite rising demand. Putin also noted that Russia maintains reserves of 1.7 million tonnes of gasoline,a slight decrease from the previous year.
In response to the fuel crisis, Russia has banned diesel exports, crucial for military operations, and has turned to importing refined petroleum products from countries like India. The ongoing conflict and economic strain are reshaping the landscape for both Russia and Ukraine as the war continues to evolve .
