Al Jazeera reports: The war against Iran that the United States and Israel launched on February 28, 2026, will likely end in an American retreat. The United States cannot continue the war without producing disastrous consequences. A renewed escalation would likely lead to the destruction of the region’s oil, gas, and desalination infrastructure, causing a prolonged global catastrophe.
Iran can credibly impose costs that the United States cannot bear and that the world should not suffer.The US – Israel war plan was a decapitation strike, sold to President Donald Trump by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and David Barnea, the director of the Mossad. The premise was that an aggressive joint US–Israeli bombing campaign would so degrade the Iranian regime’s command structure, nuclear programme, and IRGC senior leadership that the regime would fracture. The United States and Israel would then impose a pliable government in Tehran.Trump seems to have been convinced that Iran would follow the same course as had occurred in Venezuela.
Background
The US operation in Venezuela in January 2026 removed Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in what appears to have been a coordinated operation between the CIA and elements inside the Venezuelan state. The US won a more pliant regime, while most of the Venezuelan power structure remained in place. Trump seems to have believed naively that the same outcome would occur in Iran.The Iran operation, however, failed to produce a pliant regime in Tehran.
Key facts
- The war against Iran that the United States and Israel launched on February 28, 2026, will likely end in an American retreat.
- The United States cannot continue the war without producing disastrous consequences.
- A renewed escalation would likely lead to the destruction of the region’s oil, gas, and desalination infrastructure, causing a prolonged global catastrophe.
- The US won a more pliant regime, while most of the Venezuelan power structure remained in place.
- Trump seems to have believed naively that the same outcome would occur in Iran.The Iran operation, however, failed to produce a pliant regime in Tehran.
What this means
Iran is not Venezuela, historically, technologically, culturally, geographically, militarily, demographically, or geopolitically. Whatever happened in Caracas had little relation to what would take place in Tehran. Advertisement The Iranian government did not fracture.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), far from being decapitated, emerged with a tightened internal command and an expanded role in the national-security architecture. The supreme leader’s office held; the religious establishment closed ranks behind it; and the population rallied against external attack.Two months on, Trump and Netanyahu have no Iranian successor government under their control, no Iranian surrender to close the war, and no military pathway whatsoever to victory. The only path, and the one the US seems to be taking, is a retreat, with Iran in charge of the Strait of Hormuz and with none of the other issues between the US and Iran settled.Several reasons explain America’s disastrous miscalculations and Iran’s successes.First, American leaders fundamentally misjudged Iran.
Originally reported by Al Jazeera. This story has been edited and re-presented by BRIC Team.
