Deadline for final agreement between U.S. and Iran passed Monday with no deal. President Donald Trump ramped up rhetoric against Tehran,saying interim pact is "over" and signaling more aggressive economic pressure.
Trump made comments in a Fox News phone interview: "They should put up white flag of surrender." He stressed no rush for deal,confirming backchannel talks with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
June memorandum had 60-day negotiation window,extendable by agreement . But reports say interim deal fell apart over control of Strait of Hormuz, key route for global oil.
With deadline gone,focus now on U.S. using military and maritime pressure to extract concessions from Iran. About 20% of world’s oil and LNG pass through this strait. Ongoing tensions worry global energy markets and U.S. fuel prices.
New Economic Measures
Scott Bessent,U.S. Treasury Secretary, announced plans for harsh new economic measures against Iran . On Newsmax,he said,"Watch this space for more announcements coming next week because we are going to apply measures like have never been seen in the history of economic isolation of country."
Treasury spokesperson said "Economic Fury" campaign severely limits Iran's finances,pushing regime toward shadow banking and cryptocurrency to dodge sanctions.
Recent figures show Iranian oil exports have plunged—from 1.8 million barrels per day before conflict to under 500,000 barrels per day last month. IMF projects 5.4% contraction in Iran's economy,showing sanctions' impact .
Miad Maleki,former Treasury sanctions analyst,called current situation a "maximum pressure campaign on steroids." Inflation's soaring, with consumer prices up 87.9% year-on-year in July, food prices up 128%. Iranian government admits drop in oil sales and tax revenue.
Maleki noted financial restrictions and physical blockade make this campaign unique. Vulnerabilities in Iran’s gasoline supply and falling government revenues could spark unrest.
Memory of 2019 protests over gasoline price hikes looms. Back then,demonstrations led to thousands of arrests. Maleki warns Iranian regime fears repeat of such unrest,worsened by economic hardship .
Pressure's on, but effectiveness of Washington's strategy uncertain. History shows economic distress can spark protests but doesn't always force regime concessions.
Maleki argues ultimate burden of sanctions may not hit regime and elite networks,who've insulated themselves from economic pain. Tactical concessions possible, but broader changes hinge on whether financial strain hits IRGC and elites.
As U.S. nears limits of sanctions, next phase may focus on enforcing existing restrictions against foreign entities aiding Iran,like Chinese refineries and shadow-fleet tankers.
Despite pressure,senior Iranian official warned of military escalation if U.S. doesn't uphold interim agreement. Maleki cautioned full fiscal impact of reduced oil exports might hit later this year,suggesting Iranian regime could face even bigger challenges…
