Fighting flares up again in Yemen,breaking a fragile truce. Monday,the Yemeni government,with Saudi-led coalition support,bombed Sanaa International Airport to block an Iranian plane. Houthi rebels retaliated with missiles aimed at southern Saudi Arabia. Tensions rising fast.
Though airport attack is immediate flashpoint,analysts say stakes could spread to Bab al-Mandeb Strait — crucial maritime chokepoint. This passage links Red Sea to Gulf of Aden,key for global trade. Ibrahim Fraihat from Doha Institute warns Yemen's instability could spillover into nearby regions.
The Yemeni government claimed its airport strike aimed to block Iranian military personnel and tech. Houthis countered,saying plane carried over 200 medical patients and a funeral delegation for Iran's late Supreme Leader,Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Afterward, the flight diverted to Hodeidah; Houthis fired missiles at Saudi Arabia’s Abha International Airport,which were intercepted.
Bab al-Mandeb Strait becomes more critical as regional tensions spike. With Iran clashing with U.S. and Israel causing Strait of Hormuz closures,Bab al-Mandeb becomes a hotspot. Ali Akbar Velayati,adviser to Iran’s supreme leader,suggested Houthis could block both Bab al-Mandeb and Strait of Hormuz,pressuring global energy supplies.
If conflict deepens,experts warn global trade could face severe crisis. Mohammad Cherkaoui,professor of conflict resolution,said more U.S. pressure on Iran might push Tehran to use regional allies,triggering Bab al-Mandeb crisis alongside Hormuz tensions. He called it a “pincer movement” that could shake Gulf stability.
Bab al-Mandeb,known as “Gate of Tears,” is narrow passage for ~12% of global trade daily. In 2024,oil trade through here averaged 4 million barrels a day,important for shipping crude,refined products,and LNG to Europe and North America.
If Bab al-Mandeb closes,global energy markets could take hit. With Hormuz already under strain,closing both straits would block ~25% of world oil and gas. Ships would detour around Africa,raising shipping and insurance costs,possibly sparking harsh global economic crisis .
Bill Putnam,ex-commander of U.S. Military Intelligence Readiness Command,warned that if Houthis see Saudi as aggressor,escalation could threaten Red Sea navigation. Trade disruption would follow. Saudi Arabia would lose strategic edge.
Unlike its Gulf peers,dependent on Hormuz,Saudi Arabia bypasses it partly . This 1,200 km line,run by Saudi Aramco,links eastern oil facilities to Yanbu on Red Sea. Now restored to 7 million barrels/day capacity,it lets Saudi export oil without using contested Gulf waters.
But this workaround relies on Bab al-Mandeb staying open for Asia-bound shipping . If Houthis close this chokepoint, Saudi oil exports would be in trouble, trapping its crude with neighbors' and worsening global economic storm…
