JOHANNESBURG: Iran-backed Houthis are ramping up their threat to Red Sea shipping,which could force a big U.S. foreign policy shift,analysts say. As attacks on vessels rise, Washington might cozy up to more reliable partners along Africa’s coast, especially Somaliland.
Since breaking away from Somalia in 1991,Somaliland has courted U.S. favor. It boasts one of Africa's longest runways, deep-sea port, and potential air base,making it a tempting spot for U.S. military moves in the area.
Houthis have threatened to shut Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, key for Saudi oil exports — about 7 million barrels a day . Recent Houthi-linked attacks hit Saudi ships,sank an Indian vessel. An Egyptian cargo ship was targeted August 13, killing at least four crew.
Though U.S. has major military base in Djibouti, doubts about this alliance grow. Edmund Fitton-Brown,former UK ambassador to Yemen,warned of China boosting its presence there. "Djibouti may not be the ally U.S. needs. Somaliland’s time might have come," he said.
Major General Ken Ekman,just retired from Department of War,stressed Houthi threat could push U.S. to recognize Somaliland's independence. He said, "Houthis could force a new U.S. strategy in Africa," hinting at focus on Red Sea navigation.
Ekman added Houthis are opening a new front in Middle East conflict, stretching U.S. military. They might ramp up when Iranian influence in Strait of Hormuz wanes .
Currently, U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) focuses on land threats, mainly against al-Qaeda and ISIS-linked groups. These don't directly threaten U.S. homeland security. Ekman noted strategy is crisis response in East Africa,countering Russian,Chinese influence.
With Houthi threat, pivoting to Horn of Africa seems possible. Somaliland's Red Sea closeness could ease Djibouti, regional partner limits .
U.S. Air Force General Dagvin Anderson,AFRICOM commander,voiced concerns over Somali government stability. In a recent interview, he said U.S. stays committed to Somalia,but ongoing turmoil could risk military support. "If Somalia steps up, we'll be there," he said. But warned, if chaos persists,U.S. involvement may falter.
Bill Roggio,Long War Journal editor,noted U.S. frustration with Somali government issues. But allegiance hasn't shifted to Somaliland yet . He cautioned recognizing Somaliland could spark a major rift with Somalia.
Despite tensions,U.S. seems more engaged with Somaliland . AFRICOM Commander Anderson visited Somaliland to check security, Berbera port operations. Visit coincided with Somaliland delegation meeting U.S. officials in Germany on Red Sea security .
Somaliland’s U.S. representative,Bashir Goth,highlighted region's stability,commitment to U.S. ties. "Somaliland is that partner,our defense officials actively talking with AFRICOM on Red Sea security," he said.
Officially,U.S. backs Somalia over Somaliland. State Department reiterated commitment to Somali, international partners against regional terror threats. But rising Houthi threat led Saudi Arabia,13 nations to form new maritime defense coalition — U.S . hasn't joined publicly .
As situation unfolds, U.S. might find itself at crossroads, juggling historic Somalia ties with Somaliland's emerging strategic role amid growing Houthi aggression.
